Is this the college/university of the future?

May 22nd, 2018 by

Is this the college/university of the future?

College Campus

In my last blog I listed some of the characteristics of the college/university students of the future. This blog will focus on the college/university in the future.

 

The college/university in the future will:

Merge with another college or university

Offer combined degrees with other national and international colleges and universities

Incorporate technology into all facets of learning, including active learning classrooms, data analytics, predictive analytics, student success planning systems, streamed videos and blogs

Offer virtual reality recruitment tours to re-place in-person admission tours

Create web-based platforms to provide admission deans with real-time information on the students likely to enroll

Incorporate artificial intelligence into all facets of the academy and administrative functions

Recognize competency-based credits

Participate in the alternative credit program created by the American Council on Education

Partner with area companies and businesses to offer online courses

Offer online and classroom instruction year-round

Replace lecture halls with study labs

Incorporate technology into educational delivery, including streamed videos and blogs

Enroll fewer international students on campus but more online

Participate in the University Innovation Alliance to graduate more students at lower costs

Create new transcripts that will list students’ competencies, in addition to courses

Hire a Chief Innovation officer

Re-structure administrative functions to create synergy and collapse entrenched silos

In 2005 I wrote a book, Ten Trends in Higher Education. This is what I predicted 13 years ago:

Higher education providers will become more numerous and more diverse

Students will study year-round

Telecommunication options will become standard practice, with students taking classes at home, on campus, everywhere, anytime

Technological capabilities will encourage the rise of global universities

Women, minorities and adult learners will dominate higher education enrollments

Federal and state funding for higher education will decrease

Asian students will overtake European students on American colleges and universities

The United States will continue to lose market share of international students

International students will opt to study closer to home

The United States will compete with several other countries for the international student market

Traditional colleges will not disappear but they will change organizationally and will be managed differently

College credits will include credits from MOOC courses, AP courses and IB courses

The fall and spring semesters will be relics of the past

Students will have transcripts from more than one school

Colleges and universities will partner with businesses to meet the needs of the changing global economy

While it is foolish to predict the future, I think you would agree that most of the predictions I made in 2005 are reality in 2018.

Perhaps the same will be true of the predictions I made in this article?

Is this the colleege/university student of the future?

May 8th, 2018 by

Is this the college/university student of the future?

“Painting a vision with words carries the argument.”    C.S. Lewis

 

I don’t know if I will succeed in convincing you, the reader, that college and university students of the future will be very different from what they are today, but I shall try.

The U.S. college/university student in the future will be:

“Phigital”

Older and female

 Hispanic and Asian

Attend school closer to home

Learn in study labs, not lecture halls

Learn using podcasts, blogs, and streamlined videos

Attend several schools and have multiple transcripts

Graduate with a double major

Graduate with stackable credentials

Enroll in schools with robust career counseling programs, job placements at graduation and manageable debt levels

Take courses online and on-campus

Take at least one Massive Open Online Course (MOOC)

Attend classes year-round

Study abroad either in the summer or for one semester

Participate in at least one internship program

Graduate with stackable credentials

Have multiple transcripts listing competencies

Lifelong learners

Take certificate and continuing education courses after graduation

 

I don’t know if the picture I have attempted to paint with the words in this article has convinced you that the college student of tomorrow, and by extension, the college and university of the future, will be different from what it is today. But I tried.

My next blog will attempt to define the college and university of the future. Stay tuned.

Will the United States continue to enroll more international students by 2020?

April 24th, 2018 by

 

Will the United States continue to enroll more international students by 2020?

 

Background

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, international students contributed nearly $40 billion to the U.S. economy in 2016 and supported more than 450,000 jobs. Dr. Dick Startz, an economics professor at the University of Santa Barbara, puts the figure even higher at $50 billion.

According to the Institute for International Education the United States has led the world in the number of enrolled international students since records have been compiled.

However, there is ample evidence to suggest that this may be changing.  The number of international students enrolled on U.S. colleges and universities declined by four percent between 2016 and 2017.  On the graduate level, the number of international students enrolled in science and engineering decreased by 14,730, or six percent between 2016 and 2017.

The latest statistics from the State Department indicate a 17 percent decline in 2017 in the number of F-1 visas issued to international students, a 28 percent decline in the number of visas granted to Indian students and a 24 percent decline in visas issued to Chinese students. A combined 78,000 ewer international students were granted visas in 2017 compared with 2016.

The reasons for the decline are many: increased competition from other countries, especially Canada, Australia, China and Southeast Asian countries. The U.S. Muslim travel ban, greater scrutiny by consular officials of student visa applicants, uncertainty about the regulations for international students to work after graduation under the Optional Practical Training program, difficulty to obtain H-1B visas and the uncertainty over potentially new regulations that may limit the number of visas granted to Chinese students. (In 2016-17 Chinese students accounted for a third of all international students studying in the United States and contributed $ 12 billion to the U.S. economy.)

Many colleges and universities in the United States rely heavily on the income from international students to subsidize national students to meet enrollment and financial goals. The schools with brand name recognition will likely continue to enroll the number of foreign students they want or need. But second and third-tier institutions, both public and private, are most likely to experience declines in the number of international students enrolling on their campuses.

I, for one, believe that in time the United States will lose, or share, the number one spot with other countries who are aggressively and successfully enrolling a greater share of internationally mobile students. China, with nearly a half million students enrolled on Chinese campuses today and with the One Belt One Road educational initiatives in countries worldwide, may, in time, take over the number one spot in international student enrollments.  

 

Where are International Students Enrolling?

March 27th, 2018 by

Snapshot: Where are international students enrolling?

I don’t think it necessary to wait until fall 2018 enrollment numbers are known to predict which countries will continue to increase their market share of international students.

Let’s begin with Australia

According to data published in October 2017, international student enrollment increased by 13 percent over the previous year and contributed AUS$29 billion to the Australian economy.

In January of this year Indonesia announced that it will open its doors to foreign universities looking to operate in the country. One of the countries that should benefit from this ruling is Australia. Two top Australian universities, the University of Melbourne and the University of Queensland, have already expressed interest in operating in Indonesia.

Australia has emerged as the preferred destination for Indian students, a direct response, it is reported, to the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the UK and the US. The number of Indian students studying in Australia has soared to a seven-year high. As of November 2017, more than 68,000 Indian students were studying in Australia colleges and universities, an increase of 14.65 percent over the previous year.

Canada

The enrollment of Indian students in Canadian universities has been steadily increasing since 2015. By 2016, enrollment topped 100,000, an increase of 63 percent.  

Enrollments from China have also increased over the past three years. The Canadian government has opened seven new visa centers in China to accommodate the increasing demand from Chinese students.

South Korea

For the past three years international student enrollments in South Korea have increased. In 2017 enrollment increased 19 percent over the previous year. South Korea now hosts nearly 125,000 international students. China remains the most important market for South Korean colleges and universities. 55 percent of all international students studying in South Korea are Chinese.

Taiwan

In 2016, the Taiwanese government developed a “New Southbound Policy,” aimed at closer collaboration with ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.

By 2017 the number of Taiwanese students studying in ASEAN countries increased 13.5 percent. The number of students from southbound countries enrolling in Taiwanese colleges and universities increased by nearly 10 percent.

Germany

Germany’s international student enrollment increased for the 2016-17 academic year and totaled 360,000. In the prior year, the number was 340,000. Germany has set a target of enrolling 350,000 students by 2020, a target that appears to be easily reached.

I do not wish to perform cosmetic surgery on the truth. But the facts speak for themselves: the pivot to Asia has occurred and colleges and universities in “traditional” Western countries will no longer enroll international students in the numbers they have over the past quarter century.

One Way to Increase Enrollment

February 20th, 2018 by

In their book, That Used to Be Us, authors Thomas Friedman and Michael
Mandelbaum posit that the future of the United States rests firmly on the
shoulders of our education system. However, the authors report that only
25 percent of high school graduates who enroll in an undergraduate degree
program are prepared for college work and approximately 40 percent are
required to take remedial courses. Only 60 percent will graduate in six
years. And companies spend more than $3 billion annually on remedial
training. The book cites many additional negative statistics, all indications
that unless things change the United States will continue to fall further and
further behind other countries.
Higher education in the United States is a big industry, more than $500
billion in annual expenditures and many aspects of this industry are in
trouble. Currently about 18 million students are enrolled in higher education
courses, 2.4 million fewer students than were enrolled five years ago.
Enrollment is not expected to increase until 2023. In January, 2018
Moody’s Investor Service downgraded higher education from “stable” to
“negative.”
Many colleges and universities, especially those with little brand name
recognition and low endowments continue chasing after a shrinking pool of
qualified students. One-third of small private schools rated by Moody’s
Investor Service generated operating deficits in 2016, an increase from 20
percent three years ago.
According to Friedman, “big breakthroughs happen when what is suddenly
possible meets what is desperately necessary.” Could that apply to online
learning and Massive Open Online courses as potential new sources of
recruitment and enrollment?
Generation Z is the first “phigital” generation, defined as students who do
not make a distinction between the physical world and the digital world.
How can enrollment managers, deans of admission and international
enrollment managers reach this generation of students?
Enter online and Massive Open Online courses. According to a report,
eMarketer 2016, young adults are online an average of 53 hours a week.
380 million mobile devises were purchased in the first quarter of 2017, a
9.1 percent increase over the first quarter of 2016. In the 2015-16
academic year more than 6 million American students were enrolled in a
least one online and distance education course.
Similar statistics apply to international higher education.
China ranks first in the number of Massive Open Online courses with 3,200
launched by 460 higher education institutions. 55 million Chinese have
enrolled in Massive Open Online courses including more than 6 million
university students. In 2016 the number of online Chinese online learners
increased by 23.8 percent and it is anticipated that when the statistics are
published there would be a 20.5 percent increase in 2017. That increase
would bring then number of total online learners to 100 million.
Recently the government of India approved a plan permitting 15 percent of
Indian universities to offer online degrees allowing the universities to tap
into a new market of students and adult learners who are unable to attend
on-campus classes.
In February, 2017, an agreement was signed between the 380-member
Association of African Universities and Africa’s largest online education
platform, eLearn Africa. This arrangement will allow approximately 10
million African students to access higher education through online courses
offered to member institutions.
According to a report, Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education
Report 2017, 30 percent of students worldwide are enrolled in at least one
online course.
Several years ago I wrote A Practical Guide to Enrollment and Retention
Management in Higher Education. I began the first chapter of the book with
a quote of Francis Wayland, president of Brown University, who wrote in
1850:
“Our colleges are not filled because we do not furnish the education
desired by the people. We have produced an article for which demand is
diminishing. We sell it at less than cost, and the deficiency is made up by
charity. We give it away, and the demand still diminishes.” This was written
in 1850. Could it also apply to higher education in 2018?
The jury is still out on the efficacy and impact of online learning, hybrid
learning, and massive open online courses. Many higher education
administrators and faculty argue that online learning is disruptive. Others
claim that precisely because it is disruptive online learning offers the best
hope for the future higher education enrollment. Online learning will never
replace traditional colleges and universities. But they do offer the potential
to enroll new cohorts of students for whom the traditional on-campus model
is irrelevant. And they do offer enrollment managers and admission deans
an expanded universe of students from which to recruit and enroll.

 

 

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