One Way to Increase Enrollment

February 20th, 2018 by

In their book, That Used to Be Us, authors Thomas Friedman and Michael
Mandelbaum posit that the future of the United States rests firmly on the
shoulders of our education system. However, the authors report that only
25 percent of high school graduates who enroll in an undergraduate degree
program are prepared for college work and approximately 40 percent are
required to take remedial courses. Only 60 percent will graduate in six
years. And companies spend more than $3 billion annually on remedial
training. The book cites many additional negative statistics, all indications
that unless things change the United States will continue to fall further and
further behind other countries.
Higher education in the United States is a big industry, more than $500
billion in annual expenditures and many aspects of this industry are in
trouble. Currently about 18 million students are enrolled in higher education
courses, 2.4 million fewer students than were enrolled five years ago.
Enrollment is not expected to increase until 2023. In January, 2018
Moody’s Investor Service downgraded higher education from “stable” to
“negative.”
Many colleges and universities, especially those with little brand name
recognition and low endowments continue chasing after a shrinking pool of
qualified students. One-third of small private schools rated by Moody’s
Investor Service generated operating deficits in 2016, an increase from 20
percent three years ago.
According to Friedman, “big breakthroughs happen when what is suddenly
possible meets what is desperately necessary.” Could that apply to online
learning and Massive Open Online courses as potential new sources of
recruitment and enrollment?
Generation Z is the first “phigital” generation, defined as students who do
not make a distinction between the physical world and the digital world.
How can enrollment managers, deans of admission and international
enrollment managers reach this generation of students?
Enter online and Massive Open Online courses. According to a report,
eMarketer 2016, young adults are online an average of 53 hours a week.
380 million mobile devises were purchased in the first quarter of 2017, a
9.1 percent increase over the first quarter of 2016. In the 2015-16
academic year more than 6 million American students were enrolled in a
least one online and distance education course.
Similar statistics apply to international higher education.
China ranks first in the number of Massive Open Online courses with 3,200
launched by 460 higher education institutions. 55 million Chinese have
enrolled in Massive Open Online courses including more than 6 million
university students. In 2016 the number of online Chinese online learners
increased by 23.8 percent and it is anticipated that when the statistics are
published there would be a 20.5 percent increase in 2017. That increase
would bring then number of total online learners to 100 million.
Recently the government of India approved a plan permitting 15 percent of
Indian universities to offer online degrees allowing the universities to tap
into a new market of students and adult learners who are unable to attend
on-campus classes.
In February, 2017, an agreement was signed between the 380-member
Association of African Universities and Africa’s largest online education
platform, eLearn Africa. This arrangement will allow approximately 10
million African students to access higher education through online courses
offered to member institutions.
According to a report, Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education
Report 2017, 30 percent of students worldwide are enrolled in at least one
online course.
Several years ago I wrote A Practical Guide to Enrollment and Retention
Management in Higher Education. I began the first chapter of the book with
a quote of Francis Wayland, president of Brown University, who wrote in
1850:
“Our colleges are not filled because we do not furnish the education
desired by the people. We have produced an article for which demand is
diminishing. We sell it at less than cost, and the deficiency is made up by
charity. We give it away, and the demand still diminishes.” This was written
in 1850. Could it also apply to higher education in 2018?
The jury is still out on the efficacy and impact of online learning, hybrid
learning, and massive open online courses. Many higher education
administrators and faculty argue that online learning is disruptive. Others
claim that precisely because it is disruptive online learning offers the best
hope for the future higher education enrollment. Online learning will never
replace traditional colleges and universities. But they do offer the potential
to enroll new cohorts of students for whom the traditional on-campus model
is irrelevant. And they do offer enrollment managers and admission deans
an expanded universe of students from which to recruit and enroll.

 

 

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The New Normal?

February 6th, 2018 by

Are fewer international students enrolling in the U.S. the new normal?
I believe there is enough information, statistics and data to support my iconoclastic opinion that the recent decline in international student enrollment on U.S. colleges and universities in 2017 was not a one-off.
While it is true that colleges and universities in the United States enroll more international students than any other country, it is my hope that anyone reading this blog will realize that for years the U.S. has been losing market share of international students and there is no reason to believe that this will change anytime soon. No one should be shocked or confused by this trend. The U.S. decline of internationally mobile students can be traced back to 2000.
In 2001 there were 2.1 million students enrolled in higher education institutions worldwide. The U.S. enrolled 28 percent of these students. In 2017 4.6 million students studied outside their home countries and the U.S. enrolled 24 percent.
China, which was not even on the top ten list in 2001 now ranks third with 10 percent of international students enrolling in Chinese colleges and universities. In 2016, 70,540 Korean students enrolled on Chinese campuses. The number of Thai students studying in China was 23,044, India 18,11, Indonesia 14,714. The number of American students studying in China in 2016 was 23,838.
Canada, also not on the top ten list in 2001 enrolled 7 percent of all international students. And Russia, not listed in 2001, enrolled 6 percent of all international students in 2017. These statistics reflect a coordinated national policy of these countries to attract and enroll students from all over the world. Students today have options and they are exercising them.
Other countries reporting increasing numbers of international students are: Malaysia, Japan, Australia and Germany.
I believe it is safe to conclude that the competitiveness of the current international student market is not a new phenomenon or simply the result of the 2016 election. I think it is accurate to conclude that several other countries have been doing a very good job of attracting and enrolling international students and making them feel both welcomed and safe.
I think it is accurate to predict that U.S. colleges and universities can no longer take it for granted that they will continue to enroll more international students than any other country. America’s position in the international student marketplace has been attenuated. The biggest challenge of international deans and recruiters is to accept this fact and move forward. More on how to do that in future blogs.

Three Additional Reasons the US will Lose Market Share

January 23rd, 2018 by

Three additional reasons why the United States will continue to lose market share of future international students

In my last blog I listed six reasons why I believe the U.S. will continue to lose market share of future international students. Since that last posting I have three additional reasons I would like to share with you.

Uncertainty over travel bans

Even if the international student market was not as competitive as it is today, the uncertainty of current and future travel bans will negatively impact the enrollment of future international students to the U.S. Students have too many worldwide enrollment options and don’t have to deal with the unpredictability of U.S. government sanctions. The best international enrollment manager following the best international recruitment plan is no match for uncertainty and confusion. While the most prestigious U.S. colleges and universities may not feel the impact of recent government sanctions, less prestigious schools certainly will.

Changes to H-1B visa rules

Currently, H-1B visas are available to a maximum of 65,000 foreign workers for a period of 3 years. “Extreme vetting” requirements, introduced last year, have resulted in an increase of H-1B visa denials. And next month the Department of Homeland Security intends to eliminate the rule allowing spouses of H-1B visa employees to work in the U.S.

Let’s contrast this with China’s recently implemented visa policy. Beginning this year China is issuing long-term visas to attract skilled people to work in China. The multi-entry visas will be valid for a period of 5 to 10 years. Applications may be filed online and are free of charge. Spouses and children will be allowed to accompany the visa holder.

What impact do you think the two contrasting policies will have in the future?

Little or no “soft power” U.S. policies

As the U.S. retreats from the world stage as evidenced by withdrawing from a global climate agreement, renegotiating bilateral trade agreements and eschewing isolationist policies, China has stepped in to fill the power void. It’s “One Belt, One Road” project will propel China’s influence into all corners of the globe. Higher education will not be immune to China’s desire to dominate politically and economically.

The current decline in international student enrollment on U.S. colleges and universities is not, in my opinion, a one-off. First, international enrollment managers must acknowledge and validate this fact and second, design new strategies to meet the headwinds of change.

Six Reasons Why the United States will Continue to lose international student market share

January 9th, 2018 by

What do I know? — Montaigne

I suspect that many readers of this article will either dismiss the premise that colleges and universities in the United States will continue to lose international student market share or dispute the facts I list. Some may hope that the decline in international student enrollments in the United States for the fall 2017 semester, was just a blip; a one-off. Still others will blame the decline on the outcome of the 2016 election.

The fact is that for several years the United States was losing its share of the international student market. Last year the number of new foreign students declined an average of 7 percent.  According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center the number of domestic undergraduate students decreased 224,000, or 1 percent.  Was this one of the reasons why Moody’s changed its credit outlook for U.S. higher education to “negative” from “stable?”

The stakes are high. International student enrollment in the United States supplies $39 billion in revenue and supports 400 jobs.

Let’s examine some facts

In 2001, 28 percent of all international students enrolled in U.S. colleges and universities. By 2014, the figure was 22 percent.

In 2015-16, international student enrollment in the U.S. increased by 7 percent from the prior year. But that was down from a 10 percent increase.

In 2014-15, 304,040 Chinese students studied in the United States, a 10.8 percent increase from the previous year. However, in 2013-14, the increase was 21.4 percent.

Why I believe the U.S. will continue to lose international market share:

Asian Pivot

Countries with the fastest growing economies, populations and a growing middle class in Asia, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will dominate economic growth in the region. The governments in these countries have made education a priority and have invested heavily in the sector. The result has been to create a political and economic “infrastructure” in those counties that supports higher education enrollments and regional education hub growth.

China

Part of China’s higher education initiatives is to become a major importer of international students.  One example of China’s higher education expansion was the founding of the Asian Universities Alliance on April 29, 2017. Joining Tsinghua University, were several academic powerhouses in the region, including Peking University, the University of Tokyo, Seoul National University, the National University of Singapore and the University of Malaysia.

Chinese colleges and universities now enroll more students from Africa than the United States and Britain combined.

2016 Election

A great deal can and will be written about the implications of the election of Donald Trump on higher education both in the U.S. and worldwide. The current perception of the U.S. around the world is a country unwelcoming to foreign students. Perception becomes reality and it will take several years to unpack the implications of the election and travel bans.

International 2017-18 “winners”

According to the Canadian Bureau for International Education, enrollments of foreign students soared in the fall term for students from China, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Japan and Brazil. There are 270,000 new students studying in Canada, a 22 percent increase over the previous year. There are 350,000 international students, in total, studying on Canadian campuses.

International student enrollment increased 6 percent in Germany in the fall semester. International students now make up more than 12 percent of the country’s student population.

For the fall 2017 semester, more than 700,000 students from more than 190 countries enrolled on Australian campuses, an increase of more than 14 percent over the previous year.

National policies and enrollment targets

In June, 2017, the British Council reported the following international enrollment targets for the following countries:

China – 500,000 by 2020; Australia – 720,000 by 2025, Canada- 450,000 by 2022; New Zealand 143,000 by 2025

Taiwan- 58,000 by 2019; South Korea, -200,000 by 2023; Malaysia 250,000 by 2025; Japan- 300,000 by 2020;

Technology

There will probably be no greater impact on worldwide higher education than the integration of technology into educational delivery methods. The internet has rendered geography irrelevant and digital options, especially in India and certain countries in Africa, are changing the way higher education is consumed.

The high cost of studying in the U.S. and the reluctance of many U.S. colleges and universities to embrace online learning and MOOCs will continue to erode America’s market share of the globally mobile student.

Conclusion

The biggest threat, in my opinion, to future international student enrollments in the U.S. is a reluctance on the part of many college and university presidents, deans and enrollment managers to realize and take seriously that international student mobility is dominated by the options and choices students have.

We can either succumb to change or manage it. The choice is ours.

 

End of the Year Reflections

December 19th, 2017 by
Christmas background snowflakes with lights vector illustration

As has been my custom over the past five years, this end-of-the-year blog will contain no statistics or data supporting or disproving assumptions about the changing face of international student recruitment and enrollment. I will not share with you my thoughts on the impact of the Brexit referendum in Britain or the impact of the Trump election on future international student enrollments.

In the next year, my book, International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder, will be published and in that publication I will share with you why I believe major shifts are already in place for where international students will enroll in the future and how international deans and recruiters will recruit international students in the future.

For now, all I wish to do in this posting is to wish you and your family and your colleagues health and happiness in 2018.