International Student Recruitment and the New World Disorder
In the Price Waterhouse Coopers’ report, The World in 2050: Will the shift in global power continue?, the authors estimate that in just a few decades the world will be very different than it is today in terms of the global ranking of national economies and the major drivers of economic growth. The report notes that China overtook the United States in 2014 to become the world’s largest economy on purchasing power parity and by 2028 the authors project that China will surpass the United States’ GDP in market exchange rate terms.
Countries with the fastest growing economies, populations and growing middle classes in Asia, like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam will dominate economic growth in the region. And the Asian middle class is expected to increase from 600 million in 2010 to more than 3 billion by 2030 to represent 66 percent of total global middle class population.
International student mobility, by extension, will be impacted by this new economic reality. I think it is safe to predict that regional mobility will grow in importance over global mobility and the major importers of students today, the United States and the United Kingdom, will continue to lose their share of internationally mobile students. While China will remain a leading exporter of students, it will increasingly become a major importer of students with a goal of enrolling 500,000 international students by 2020.
According to an Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report, the stage is set for a new level of competition among international study destinations. National visa and immigration policies, coordinated regional and national marketing campaigns, availability of scholarships and employment after graduation, will be some of the factors countries can leverage to maintain or increase their market share of international students.
In his book, The World in Disarray, Richard Haass writes: What exists in many parts of the world resembles more a new world disorder.”
I would extent that sentiment to international higher education.
This article is excerpted from my new book, International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder, to be published in December, 2017.
International Student Mobility and the Impact of Technology on International Recruitment
There will probably be no greater impact on higher education worldwide than the integration of technology into educational delivery methods. The internet has rendered geography irrelevant and digital options, especially in India and parts of Africa, are changing the way higher education is consumed in those countries. Many students may study abroad but they may do so never leaving their home countries.
The numbers are staggering and change daily but, according to the report, Digital Learning Compass: Distance Education Enrollment Report 2017, 30 percent of students worldwide are enrolled in at least 1 online course.
I realize the jury is still out on the potential and sustainability of online education. But the major MOOC providers, Udacity, Coursera and edX in the United States, FutureLearn in Britain and Iversity in Germany, among others believe that online and MOOC courses have the potential to educate millions of students, democratize higher education and build global communities.
Two technology giants, Google and Bertelsmann, also believe in the potential of MOOCs to transform how higher education is delivered and have launched a scholarship program to fund and enroll 75,000 students from the European Union, Egypt, Israel, Russia and Turkey in MOOC courses.
Google education writer, Brigitte Hoyer Gosselink, wrote the following: “Technology can bypass the geopolitical and financial boundaries that block educational resources from reaching students, while making those resources more engaging, interactive and effective.”
The jury is still out on the potential and sustainability of online learning and MOOC courses. But I believe the greatest promises of online learning and MOOCs, as well as the greatest threats, have yet to materialize.
Debate and disagreement will continue among members of the higher education community. But, in my opinion, the colleges and universities that will successfully maneuver around the headwinds of change will be the schools that realize that tomorrow’s technology is already today’s reality.
This article is excerpted from my new book, International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder, to be published in December, 2017.
The Impact of Nationalism on Future International Student Recruitment
All of the numbers are yet to be recorded but what we know today is that many of the predictions about international student enrollment for the fall, 2017 term, have become reality. This is what we know so far:
In a report published by ICEF, a survey of US colleges and universities revealed that only about a third expected to meet their enrollment targets for September. And 40 per cent expected declines in international student numbers for the fall. 85 percent of senior admission staff reported being very concerned about reaching their institutional targets for the next academic year. Early reports reveal a decrease in the number of applications from Chinese and Indian students, two of the most important markets for US colleges and universities.
According to the Canadian Bureau for International Education, Canadian colleges and universities report an increased number of applicants and enrollments from students from China, India, South Korea, France, the United States, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Japan and Brazil.
While there are no final enrollment numbers for schools in Great Britain, Australia, Germany, China, Japan, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, early application numbers indicate an increase in the number of international student applications in all of the countries listed with the exception of Great Britain.
At least in the United States, in an attempt to increase international enrollments for 2018, international enrollment managers and recruiters will probably engage in attending more international fairs, hire more agents, create new social media outlets and host more webinars.
I will not argue with the validity or productivity of this type of international student outreach. However, I believe there are other factors in play that will impact future international student recruitment and enrollment. One such factor is the rise of nationalism around the world and specifically in the United States, Great Britain, China and certain European countries, like Hungary, Turkey and Poland.
I believe that before embarking on doing more of the same, international enrollment managers and deans should first consider the impact of nationalism on future international recruitment plans.
The impact of nationalism on international higher education has already been felt in the declining number of applications from international students to the United States and European Union students to Britain. It would be easy to blame the election of Donald Trump and the Brexit vote for the reasons for the declines. But both the election and the vote were outcomes, not causes, of the votes. People around the world fear they are losing out because of free market globalization. People around the world believe their borders are too porous, and people around the world fear losing their sense of national identity.
In his book, Ruling the Void: the Hollowing of Western Democracy, the author, Peter Mair, makes the case for current populist sentiments. Elected governments, he writes, have conceded powers to non-elected agencies, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization.
In many countries in the Middle East, political turmoil and changing alliances have created new higher educational partners. While the United Arab Emirates continue to enroll increased numbers of international students, the tension between Saudi Arabia and Qatar and the conflicts in Syria and Yemen, do not bode well for the future of international recruitment in those countries. And then there is the increasing influence of Iran in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan to consider.
China is flexing its nationalistic muscle not only politically and economically but also in higher education. President Xi, since coming to power, has intensified efforts to build what he refers to as “cultural confidence,” beginning with a nationwide education program to preserve traditional Chinese culture and minimize “Western values” influence on Chinese society.
In April of this year, the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, called for an amendment to the National Higher Education law which would make it impossible for the Central European University to operate. CEU, founded in 1991 is a private graduate school with 1,000 students from over 100 countries. The Prime Minister wants to change its U.S. accreditation so that it can become free of “nefarious liberal influences.”
There are too many other examples of global nationalist movements to list in this article but I believe that growing nationalist movements have the potential to threaten and disrupt the global and collaborative nature of higher education.
International enrollment managers should carefully calculate how nationalism may impact their future international recruitment plans. The best plans of 2017 may not be valid next year because of the political and economic changes fueled by nationalism.
Parts of this article are excerpted from my new book, International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder, to be published in December, 2017.
The worldwide political changes of 2017 will benefit China by increasing its political and economic influence in Asia and around the world. China’s new dominance and strategic alliances will influence the future of international student mobility. It would be easy to focus an article about the impressive rise of China’s higher education system and the impact of Chinese students on international mobility patterns. The numbers are dazzling.In 2017 more than 700,000 Chinese students will study abroad, some to study in high schools and colleges, others to study abroad for a shorter period of time, perhaps for language study. According to an April 22, 2017 article in “The Economist,” 57 per cent of Chinese parents would like to send their children abroad for study.
But this is not an article about increasing Chinese student numbers. This article is an attempt to see to tomorrow and how China may and can emerge as a higher education
superpower in the coming years. The U.S. columnist Ian Bremer predicts that American
international leadership, a constant since 1945, will end this year. The U.S. has become the single biggest source of international uncertainty, creating a void that China is
eager to fill.
Xi Jingping, China’s most powerful leader since Deng Xiaoping, has been called the chairman of everything. His policies have ushered in a new territorial assertiveness as
evidenced by recent events. The fawning reception given him in January at the World Economic Forum in Davos signaled the importance of the Chinese president on the
world stage. And the chairman did not disappoint. He presented himself and his country as champions for globalization and open markets and he suggested that China should guide economic globalization in the future.Mr. Xi’s frequently refers to the “Chinese dream of the great revival of the Chinese nation.”
Contrast these sentiments with the inward-looking policies of the U.S. and it is easy to understand why Xi’s comments were not lost on the attendees of the World Economic Forum. Nor were they lost on the countries in Asia and Southeast Asia, such as Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia.
On May 14th of this year the first Belt and Road Forum was held in Beijing. This initiative boasts spending $150 billion in infrastructure projects in countries south and west of China, along the historical Silk Road. The overarching aim of the project is to construct a network of ports, railways and pipelines that will plug China into economic hubs across Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
The founding of the Asian Universities Alliance, on April 29th with an initial membership of 15 universities from across the region, has initial funding of $1.5 million from Tsinghua University and is an example of China flexing its higher education muscles.
Joining Tsinghua University are several academic powerhouses in the region, including Peking University, the University of Tokyo, Seoul National University, the
National University of Singapore and the University of Malaysia.
In addition to promoting student and faculty mobility within Asia, the organization also aims to promote collaborative research among member institutions. Chinese Vice-
Premier Liu Yandong delivered the keynote address at the opening ceremony and predicted that the Asian Universities Alliance will “Resolve regional and global
problems and bring together outstanding talents with an international perspective to serve regional development.” According to Yoichi Funabashi, chairman of the Tokyo-
based think tank, Rebuild Japan Initiative Foundation,
China can and will use its economic pull to draw Asian nations into its geopolitical orbit. Inevitably, political and economic ties eventually translate into educational ties.
Joseph Nye, who coined the term “soft power” in 1990, certainly would agree that China’s initiatives are good examples of making “soft power” investments that really
are expressions of hard power.
What does this mean for the future of international student enrollment in the U.S.? It is my opinion that if, and when, U.S. policies change, it will still take a long time to
untangle current perceptions and realities. International deans and recruiters will have to accept the reality of the increasing importance of China’s educational prowess and
adjust future strategic plans accordingly. There will be opportunities for U.S. colleges and universities in the new world order. But these opportunities will demand a different way of recruiting from today’s standard procedures. International deans and recruiters
will have to think differently and will have to focus more on collaboration and less on the go-it-alone strategies many schools use today.
Strategic plans written last year or this year, should be scrapped in full or in part. New plans should be written taking into account that what was once certain with regard
to international student mobility patterns, are now uncertainy
Beyond the corridors of today lies a new world order.
International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder
It has been some time since I last posted an article about some aspect of international trends and international student recruitment and mobility. I have a good reason.
For the past several months I have been researching and writing a new book, “International Student Mobility and the New World Disorder.” The book is finally finished and I would like to share some of its information, including:
World events have had, and will continue to have, an impact on future generations of international students. The destinations of future international students cannot be isolated from changing worldwide geopolitical and economic realities. The book outlines some of the political, economic, societal and technological trends that are shaping our world and correlate those trends to future international student recruitment and enrollment. The impact of the Brexit vote and the election of President Trump on future international student mobility is presented in detail.
In this section of the book I offer the reader practical guidelines and recommendations for dealing with the new realities of future international student mobility, the elements of a successful and unsuccessful international strategic plans and recommendations on how to increase international student enrollment.
The basic theme of the book is to present information to international enrollment managers, deans and recruiters of worldwide political, economic, societal and technological trends in order to assist them to write not just strategic international plans, but innovative strategic international plans. The book marries research with actionable suggestions for how to plan now for the uncertainties of tomorrow.
No crystal ball. No one knows, for certain how international higher education will evolve over the next year and in future years. What I have researched and written is what I know to be true today. Tomorrow’s research could point in a different direction. The chess players in the international student mobility game are changing and are constantly moving.
Even though I did not take his advice the late movie mogul, Sam Goldwyn, once said “Never make predictions, especially about the future.”