About Marguerite Dennis

Marguerite Dennis has been recruiting internationally for over 25 years, first at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. and then at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts. During that time she was responsible for establishing a branch campus for Suffolk University in Dakar, Senegal and Madrid, Spain. Marguerite increased the international student population at Suffolk University by 193% from 1993 to 2011 and increased the number of study abroad programs by 135%, from 20 to 47. She monitored the recruitment programs for Suffolk University in 20 countries and hired a network of 10 international educational consultants. She signed agreements in Viet Nam, Hong Kong, Kuwait, Germany, Mexico, France and Argentina.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education

                          THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

 

  “The world is changing Understand what’s ahead”   The Atlantic

 

Author’s Note: For the past ten weeks I have attempted to share with you my insights and predictions about the impact of COVID-19 on higher education. Like many of you reading these bulletins, my focus was on the immediate impact of the virus on the spring and fall terms.

Next week I will travel from Naples, Florida to Cape Cod, Massachusetts so Bulletin # 11 will be sent to you not on June 5th but on June 12th.

The bulletins in the upcoming weeks and months will move from the immediate to the long-term. I will focus my research not on the rethought college or university but on the reimagined one. I will write not about strategic plans, but rather about vision plans. I will share research not on the new normal but on the normal, not on the ephemeral, but on the permanent.

I trust you will find this information both insightful and useful.

JUST THE FACTS

Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health in the United States believes there will continue to be outbreaks of COVID-19 in the fall and winter months and cautions that there cannot be a single plan for when and how colleges in the U.S. open safely for the fall term.

A survey of 310 college presidents conducted by the American Council on Education revealed that more than half, 53%, plan to resume in-person classes in the fall.

88% of surveyed colleges and universities in the U.S. expect international student enrollment to decline in the 2020-2021 school year and 30% expect a substantial decline. (The Hechinger Report)  

A series of interviews with affluent Chinese parents revealed a re-evaluation of sending their children abroad for college. Economic uncertainty, certain countries responses to the pandemic and rising anti-Chinese sentiment in certain parts of the world were the reasons cited. (South China Morning Post

Indian students are changing or delaying their plans to study abroad for the fall term. Canada, Germany and the UK have emerged as countries of interest to potential Indian students.

ECONOMIC IMPACT OF COVIS-19

High unemployment rates throughout the U.S. will result in state budget cuts due to the loss of tax revenue. Many institutions will be forced to raise tuition. Many prospective domestic students will be unable to pay the increased costs and many prospective international students will not be interested in paying the higher costs. Fewer international students translates into fewer U.S. jobs; 455,000 fewer jobs.

The pandemic has already cost UK universities an estimated 790 pounds. For most schools the shutdown has meant no or reduced income in accommodation, catering, and conference revenue. 

In the U.S. auxiliary income from bookstores, residence halls and summer camps was $44 billion in the 2017 fiscal year. Like in the UK, the virus has shutdown most of the operations that would or could produce that level of income this year.

Australia expects its higher education sector to lose between AUS$3 –6 billion for this academic year.

SMILE

Robert Jackson, Chair of the Global Carbon Project at Stanford University, reported that carbon emissions have dropped 17% during the pandemic.

The University of California announced this week that it is divesting its $126 billion portfolio from fossil fuels into more environmentally sustainable investments, such as wind and solar energy. 

David Green, president of Colby College in Maine, announced yesterday that the college has pledged to find jobs for all of its students.

 

COVID – 19

 

 

“No forecast is better than a random guess, because so much can change.”

  Ruchir Sharma, Foreign Affairs magazine

 

 

 

JUST THE FACTS

According to the Carnegie Dartlet survey of 2,800 U.S. high school seniors, one-third said they would defer or cancel their college enrollment in the fall if classes are held only online. 42% said they would not delay enrolling under any circumstances. 95% of the seniors surveyed indicated that they would expect a reduction in tuition if classes were held online.

Joshua Kim of Dartmouth College and Edward J. Maloney of Georgetown University surveyed 10,000 U.S. students about their preferences for the fall semester. 78% of the students surveyed prefer in-person classes; 53% prefer a combination of in-person and online instruction; 51% prefer a flexible block schedule; 35% prefer a structured gap year; 23% prefer first-year students to study on campus and upperclassmen study online; 34% prefer core classes taught on campus and other classes online; 28% prefer to live on campus but take classes online and 12% prefer a delayed start to the semester.

79% said there should be some reduction in tuition for online courses.

Two potential class-action lawsuits against the University of Florida Board of Trustees have been filed by students seeking refunds for the spring semester because students

were forced to take classes online.

Cambridge University announced this week that all classes will be taught online until the fall 2021 semester.

Three out of four universities in South Korea expect to continue with remote learning in the fall semester.

McGill University, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Montreal will hold classes online for the fall semester.

The University of Manchester will keep all of its lectures online for the fall semester.

The University of Aberdeen is postponing the start of the academic year.

FINANCIAL IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

The Asian Development Bank announced this week that COVID-19 could cost the global economy between $5.8 trillion to $8.8 trillion.

Several colleges and universities in the U.S. will no longer contribute to employees’ retirement accounts, either for one year or indefinitely. Johns Hopkins, Duke, Georgetown and Northwestern are among the school that have, or will, no longer make contributions to pension funds.

Global Workplace Analytics, a consulting company, estimates that when the pandemic is over, 30% of the entire workforce will work from home at least a couple of days a week.

95% of Facebook’s 45,000+ employees are working remotely and Mark Zuckerberg expects only 25% to be back in the office by the end of the year.

The number of e-meetings increases each week.

Microsoft Teams announced this week its daily active users increased 70% to 75 million participants in just one month.

Google Meet topped 100 million users.

Zoom announced 300 million daily meeting participants at the end of April, up from 200 million at the beginning of the month.

The CEO of Boeing estimates that it could take 3 to 5 years before travel resumes to some degree of normalcy.

NAFSA: Association of International Educators, estimates a loss of at least $3 billion due to anticipated international student enrollment declines.

The organization also estimated $1 billion loss due to shortened or cancelled study abroad programs in the spring and summer.

U.S. colleges and universities spent an estimated $639 million in financial support for international students, scholars, faculty, and staff who remained on campus when courses were moved online for the spring semester.

SMILE SECTION

The University of California Board of Regents approved a five-year plan to phase out college entrance exams and replace the SAT and ACT with a new test to be developed by University of California faculty.

California is the largest single state market for undergraduate admissions examinations. 

More than 1,200 U.S. schools have informed applicants that entrance exams will not be needed for the next academic year.

There are many smiling applicants today because of the decisions made by colleges and universities throughout the U.S.

A surprising report from the Institute for International Education revealed that less than 10% of the international students who were enrolled for the spring semester went home. The rest remained on-campus or somewhere else in the U.S.

There are many international admissions deans reading that report and smiling.

FINAL COMMENT

Professor Steve Smith, vice-chancellor and chief executive of the University of Exeter and chair of the International Policy Network at Universities UK, wrote: “This crisis feels like no other. I honestly think it will change us, and how we operate, teach and do research forever.”

I would agree with the vice-chancellor but I also believe that change can be beneficial and the pandemic has presented higher education with the opportunity to reimagine how we recruit, admit, enroll, teach, retain, and graduate students.  

The Impact of COVID-19

                   THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

BULLETIN # 7                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

          Zeitgeist  – a defining spirit or mood of a particular period of time as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time.                                      

The following are some of my ideas and beliefs  in this time of pandemic.

 

JUST THE FACTS

Standard & Poor’s down graded the outlook for U.S. higher education to negative due to student disruptions caused by COVID-19.

According to information published in the PIE News, the majority of Indian students interested in enrolling for the fall 2020 term will defer enrollment and 26% of the students polled expressed a willingness to enroll in online courses.

According to an article in The Irish Times one estimate of decreased international student enrollment in Ireland could be as high as 80%.

In 2017, the Gies College of Business and the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois took out a three-year contract with Lloyd’s of London to insure against a large drop in revenue from Chinese students resulting from such things as a trade war, a global pandemic and visa restrictions.

Last week the National Association for College Admissions Counseling requested American colleges and universities to reassess their admission criteria.

More than 70 U.S. schools no longer require the ACT or SAT for admission.

According to NACAC (same organization as listed above), more than 600 U.S. colleges and universities have not filled their classes for the fall term. Last year the number was 419 schools and prior to that year the number was 300.

In a survey of almost 6,900 prospective and current students conducted by IDP Connect, IDP’s education market intelligence division, 38% of the students polled are prepared to defer their studies until campus-based teaching begins and 31% intend to begin their studies online until campus lockdowns end. Only 10% indicated a willingness to complete their entire program remotely. 

Public colleges in the United States increased tuition by more than 37% from 2009 to 2017.

U.S. student debt in 2020 increased to more than $1.6 trillion.

Two-thirds of students surveyed by The Chronicle of Higher Education want a discount on their tuition and fees for remote learning courses.

In that same survey students were asked to rank colleges and universities according to safety and handling of COVID-19. New Zealand came in first and Canada came in second. The United States came in last.

According to Andrew Connors of Lloyds Banking Group, many U.K. universities are modeling student reductions of between 80% to 100% for the fall term.

According to an Eduvantis survey of American business schools during the last week of March, 93% of the responding business school deans said they believed that the pandemic will accelerate the closure of several business schools.

CONNECT THE DOTS

FINANCIAL

If you want to know if your potential students are likely to enroll, follow the economics and the consumer behavior in each of your recruitment markets.

So

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the GDP for the United States decreased at an annual rate of 48% in the first quarter of 2020.

As of May 8th, 20.5 million Americans filed for unemployment in April. The current unemployment rate is 14.7%. 8.4% of college graduates are unemployed and 21% of high school graduates are out of work.

China’s goal of enrolling more than 500,000 students on its campuses this year relied heavily on enrollment of students from Belt and Road countries.  But tensions with African students studying in China, coupled with a plunge in oil, copper and other minerals’ prices, has curtailed China’s ambitions in infrastructure and education projects in Belt and Road countries. 

China’s economic output fell 6.8% in the first quarter of this year. Chinese companies posted their weakest corporate earnings in a decade in the first quarter after the COVID-19 outbreak.

According to Soochow Securities, profits for more than 3,000 companies on China’s mainland exchanges dropped 42% from a year earlier.

Australia’s central bank expects the country’s economy to contract 6% this year and unemployment to peak at 10%.

Japan’s household spending in March fell 6% from a year ago, the biggest drop in five years.

What does this have to do with higher education?

Consumer spending in all of these countries will decline. And that includes spending for a college or university education.

Students, not recruiters, will determine college and university enrollment in the future. According to Ben Nelson, CEO of Minerva, 70% of international students who returned home during the pandemic are not planning to return to finish their education.

 

VIDEOCOFERENCING

In 2011, Eric S. Yuan, founded Zoom and by 2017 the company’s valuation reached a billion dollars. Zoom is now the fastest-growing videoconferencing service in the world. The number of daily users jumped from ten million last December to two hundred million in late March.

The estimated number of daily downloads, which averaged fifty-six thousand in January, was 2.13 million on March 23rd alone!

SMILE SECTION

More than 170 years ago, the people of the Choctaw Nation sent $170 to Irish farmers during the potato famine. Now, Irish families are returning the favor. As of May 5th, Irish families have raised $1.8 million dollars for Native Americans suffering from COVID-19.

It seems that neither time nor a pandemic can blunt the generosity of spirit.

The handshake, a gesture that has been around since the mid-ninth century, and evolved to show that you weren’t holding a weapon, is one of the many facets of life that has been sidelined by the virus. It may never return. 

Social distancing is not something new.

In an article from The Paris Review, the novelist Gorin McCrea writes about the reveries of solitude experienced by Jacques Rosseau, who voluntarily stepped outside of society and willingly distanced himself.

There is something positive about having more time, fewer meetings, and less travel. We all have more time. How we use that time is an individual choice.  

The third U.S. president, Thomas Jefferson put it best.

“I love the ineffable of being owner of my own time.”

 

The Impact of COVID-19

                  THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

                                         

 

For the past six weeks I have sent information on the impact of the pandemic on higher education. The list of recipients has increased as has the amount of information I have compiled. 

 

 So beginning with this week’s bulletin, I will re-format the information to include a section of facts, a section of my interpretation of the facts and a concluding section which I hope will make some of you smile.

Paul Hanstedt, director of the Center for Academic Resources and Pedagogical Excellence at Washington and Lee University, wrote the following about the impact of COVID-19 on higher education:

“The virus is breaking down the boundaries between static learning and the wicked fluidity of the world.”

It is my intention, as each of you walk down your own corridor of isolation, to illustrate the connectivity of the academic and administrative functions of higher education. 

JUST THE FACTS

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CONCERNS

A new survey of concerns of college and university presidents in the United States revealed that the main concern of 86% of the presidents was short-term attrition and long-tern enrollment. 

The survey also revealed:

76% of presidents planned to invest in new, online learning resources

70% planned to move admissions online

62% planned to reduce the workforce

38% planned to institute salary reductions

36% planned to reduce benefits and

28% planned to revise admissions’ standards

 

CHINESE STUDENTS

A survey conducted by Amherst College of 54 college counselors in China revealed that 87% are “reconsidering” studying in the United States because of safety concerns, fear of visa denial or deportation, and uncertainty about remaining in the United States after graduation. BUT 70% of the counselors suggested that if Chinese students were admitted to a prestigious college in the United States, they would choose to enroll in the U.S.

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL

The Fulbright Program notified all 2020-21 scholars that the start date for international travel will be delayed from fall 2020 to January 2021, at least.

According to a United Nations World Tourism Organization report, 96% of all destinations worldwide have introduced travel restrictions since January 2020. As of April 6th no destination has been lifted.

International travel was suspended for 95% of faculty and staff in March. 

Passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport, Europe’s busiest airport, was down 97% last month.

CHANGE IN EDUCATION PLANS

According to a survey conducted by Strada Education Network, an estimated 28 million Americans, or 1 in 5, have cancelled their educational plans because of the virus.

QS collected responses of 24,000 American students at the end of April who plan to defer or cancel their study abroad plans. Only 10% said they had not changed their plans to study abroad.

One in ten American high school students who planned to attend a four-year college in the fall, full-time, no longer plan to do so.

According to a UNESCO report, the pandemic has disrupted learning for nine out of ten students, (87%).

ONLINE LEARNING

Online learning platforms such as Open Classrooms, Future Learn, and Coursera have experienced a surge in demand.

More than 120,000 students in 1,200 schools are enrolled the Paris-based Open Classrooms.

Future Learn developed a course “How to Teach Online,” and 30,000 people signed up for the course in a few days. 

A survey conducted by Tyton Partners revealed that only 57% of American parents surveyed would continue at an institution if it offered only online education. When asked to respond to the quality of the remote instruction students were now receiving, on a scale of 1 to 10, they ranked the quality of online learning at 5.6. 

This same survey also found that parents were less likely to pay the same tuition rates as were charged before COVID-19.

TUITION AND FEE CHANGES

Davidson College in North Carolina will allow any accepted applicant affected by COVID-19 to delay fall 2020 tuition payments for a year.

Southern New Hampshire college is offering a full-tuition scholarship for one year to any accepted applicant who enrolls at the university’s traditional campus.

 

CONNECT THE DOTS

Geopolitical tensions between China and Australia, Canada, France, Sweden and the United States will impact future enrollment of Chinese students in those countries. Sweden, for example, has cancelled the last of its Confucius Institutes.

Consumer behavior will determine future higher education enrollment. For example, in China, retail sales have plummeted about one-sixth in March from a year earlier.

If you want to know who may enroll this year and apply next year in your school, follow the consumer behavior patterns for each of your recruitment markets.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central bank, warned that the Eurozone’s economy could shrink by as much as 12% this year.

30 million American have filed for unemployment benefits by the end of April.

Shrinking economies worldwide and millions of unemployed workers will influence future enrollment of college and university students.

The National Governors Association has released a primer for states on how to handle college closures.

Will COVID-19 transform the university sector as the Black Death did in the Middle Ages? The plague that swept through Europe in the last 1340s ultimately led to a shift from a world view centered on theology to one that valued science.

SMILE SECTION

The University of Alaska is furloughing its top officials, including the president, for 10 days.

Be careful who you invite for lunch. A Malaysian minister was fined $229 for eating with a group of colleagues and not observing social distancing.

Did you know that Rome turned 2,773 years old last week?

I learned a new word today: sitooterie – a small area where people sit outside.

I hope each of you has found, or will find, a suitable sitooterie.

 

NEXT BULLETIN                                                                           MAY 8,2020

 

 

 

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education III

                 THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

                                       

For the past six weeks I have sent information on the impact of the pandemic on higher education. The list of recipients has increased as has the amount of information I have compiled. 

 

 So beginning with this week’s bulletin, I will re-format the information to include a section of facts, a section of my interpretation of the facts and a concluding section which I hope will make some of you smile.

Paul Hanstedt, director of the Center for Academic Resources and Pedagogical Excellence at Washington and Lee University, wrote the following about the impact of COVID-19 on higher education:

“The virus is breaking down the boundaries between static learning and the wicked fluidity of the world.”

It is my intention, as each of you walk down your own corridor of isolation, to illustrate the connectivity of the academic and administrative functions of higher education. 

JUST THE FACTS

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CONCERNS

A new survey of concerns of college and university presidents in the United States revealed that the main concern of 86% of the presidents was short-term attrition and long-tern enrollment. 

The survey also revealed:

76% of presidents planned to invest in new, online learning resources

70% planned to move admissions online

62% planned to reduce the workforce

38% planned to institute salary reductions

36% planned to reduce benefits and

28% planned to revise admissions’ standards

 

CHINESE STUDENTS

A survey conducted by Amherst College of 54 college counselors in China revealed that 87% are “reconsidering” studying in the United States because of safety concerns, fear of visa denial or deportation, and uncertainty about remaining in the United States after graduation. BUT 70% of the counselors suggested that if Chinese students were admitted to a prestigious college in the United States, they would choose to enroll in the U.S.

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL

The Fulbright Program notified all 2020-21 scholars that the start date for international travel will be delayed from fall 2020 to January 2021, at least.

According to a United Nations World Tourism Organization report, 96% of all destinations worldwide have introduced travel restrictions since January 2020. As of April 6th no destination has been lifted.

International travel was suspended for 95% of faculty and staff in March. 

Passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport, Europe’s busiest airport, was down 97% last month.

CHANGE IN EDUCATION PLANS

According to a survey conducted by Strada Education Network, an estimated 28 million Americans, or 1 in 5, have cancelled their educational plans because of the virus.

QS collected responses of 24,000 American students at the end of April who plan to defer or cancel their study abroad plans. Only 10% said they had not changed their plans to study abroad.

One in ten American high school students who planned to attend a four-year college in the fall, full-time, no longer plan to do so.

According to a UNESCO report, the pandemic has disrupted learning for nine out of ten students, (87%).

ONLINE LEARNING

Online learning platforms such as Open Classrooms, Future Learn, and Coursera have experienced a surge in demand.

More than 120,000 students in 1,200 schools are enrolled the Paris-based Open Classrooms.

Future Learn developed a course “How to Teach Online,” and 30,000 people signed up for the course in a few days. 

A survey conducted by Tyton Partners revealed that only 57% of American parents surveyed would continue at an institution if it offered only online education. When asked to respond to the quality of the remote instruction students were now receiving, on a scale of 1 to 10, they ranked the quality of online learning at 5.6. 

This same survey also found that parents were less likely to pay the same tuition rates as were charged before COVID-19.

TUITION AND FEE CHANGES

Davidson College in North Carolina will allow any accepted applicant affected by COVID-19 to delay fall 2020 tuition payments for a year.

Southern New Hampshire college is offering a full-tuition scholarship for one year to any accepted applicant who enrolls at the university’s traditional campus.

 

CONNECT THE DOTS

Geopolitical tensions between China and Australia, Canada, France, Sweden and the United States will impact future enrollment of Chinese students in those countries. Sweden, for example, has cancelled the last of its Confucius Institutes.

Consumer behavior will determine future higher education enrollment. For example, in China, retail sales have plummeted about one-sixth in March from a year earlier.

If you want to know who may enroll this year and apply next year in your school, follow the consumer behavior patterns for each of your recruitment markets.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central bank, warned that the Eurozone’s economy could shrink by as much as 12% this year.

30 million American have filed for unemployment benefits by the end of April.

Shrinking economies worldwide and millions of unemployed workers will influence future enrollment of college and university students.

The National Governors Association has released a primer for states on how to handle college closures.

Will COVID-19 transform the university sector as the Black Death did in the Middle Ages? The plague that swept through Europe in the last 1340s ultimately led to a shift from a world view centered on theology to one that valued science.

SMILE SECTION

The University of Alaska is furloughing its top officials, including the president, for 10 days.

Be careful who you invite for lunch. A Malaysian minister was fined $229 for eating with a group of colleagues and not observing social distancing.

Did you know that Rome turned 2,773 years old last week?

I learned a new word today: sitooterie – a small area where people sit outside.

I hope each of you has found, or will find, a suitable sitooterie.