The Impact of COVID-19

                   THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

BULLETIN # 7                                 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

          Zeitgeist  – a defining spirit or mood of a particular period of time as shown by the ideas and beliefs of the time.                                      

The following are some of my ideas and beliefs  in this time of pandemic.

 

JUST THE FACTS

Standard & Poor’s down graded the outlook for U.S. higher education to negative due to student disruptions caused by COVID-19.

According to information published in the PIE News, the majority of Indian students interested in enrolling for the fall 2020 term will defer enrollment and 26% of the students polled expressed a willingness to enroll in online courses.

According to an article in The Irish Times one estimate of decreased international student enrollment in Ireland could be as high as 80%.

In 2017, the Gies College of Business and the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois took out a three-year contract with Lloyd’s of London to insure against a large drop in revenue from Chinese students resulting from such things as a trade war, a global pandemic and visa restrictions.

Last week the National Association for College Admissions Counseling requested American colleges and universities to reassess their admission criteria.

More than 70 U.S. schools no longer require the ACT or SAT for admission.

According to NACAC (same organization as listed above), more than 600 U.S. colleges and universities have not filled their classes for the fall term. Last year the number was 419 schools and prior to that year the number was 300.

In a survey of almost 6,900 prospective and current students conducted by IDP Connect, IDP’s education market intelligence division, 38% of the students polled are prepared to defer their studies until campus-based teaching begins and 31% intend to begin their studies online until campus lockdowns end. Only 10% indicated a willingness to complete their entire program remotely. 

Public colleges in the United States increased tuition by more than 37% from 2009 to 2017.

U.S. student debt in 2020 increased to more than $1.6 trillion.

Two-thirds of students surveyed by The Chronicle of Higher Education want a discount on their tuition and fees for remote learning courses.

In that same survey students were asked to rank colleges and universities according to safety and handling of COVID-19. New Zealand came in first and Canada came in second. The United States came in last.

According to Andrew Connors of Lloyds Banking Group, many U.K. universities are modeling student reductions of between 80% to 100% for the fall term.

According to an Eduvantis survey of American business schools during the last week of March, 93% of the responding business school deans said they believed that the pandemic will accelerate the closure of several business schools.

CONNECT THE DOTS

FINANCIAL

If you want to know if your potential students are likely to enroll, follow the economics and the consumer behavior in each of your recruitment markets.

So

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the GDP for the United States decreased at an annual rate of 48% in the first quarter of 2020.

As of May 8th, 20.5 million Americans filed for unemployment in April. The current unemployment rate is 14.7%. 8.4% of college graduates are unemployed and 21% of high school graduates are out of work.

China’s goal of enrolling more than 500,000 students on its campuses this year relied heavily on enrollment of students from Belt and Road countries.  But tensions with African students studying in China, coupled with a plunge in oil, copper and other minerals’ prices, has curtailed China’s ambitions in infrastructure and education projects in Belt and Road countries. 

China’s economic output fell 6.8% in the first quarter of this year. Chinese companies posted their weakest corporate earnings in a decade in the first quarter after the COVID-19 outbreak.

According to Soochow Securities, profits for more than 3,000 companies on China’s mainland exchanges dropped 42% from a year earlier.

Australia’s central bank expects the country’s economy to contract 6% this year and unemployment to peak at 10%.

Japan’s household spending in March fell 6% from a year ago, the biggest drop in five years.

What does this have to do with higher education?

Consumer spending in all of these countries will decline. And that includes spending for a college or university education.

Students, not recruiters, will determine college and university enrollment in the future. According to Ben Nelson, CEO of Minerva, 70% of international students who returned home during the pandemic are not planning to return to finish their education.

 

VIDEOCOFERENCING

In 2011, Eric S. Yuan, founded Zoom and by 2017 the company’s valuation reached a billion dollars. Zoom is now the fastest-growing videoconferencing service in the world. The number of daily users jumped from ten million last December to two hundred million in late March.

The estimated number of daily downloads, which averaged fifty-six thousand in January, was 2.13 million on March 23rd alone!

SMILE SECTION

More than 170 years ago, the people of the Choctaw Nation sent $170 to Irish farmers during the potato famine. Now, Irish families are returning the favor. As of May 5th, Irish families have raised $1.8 million dollars for Native Americans suffering from COVID-19.

It seems that neither time nor a pandemic can blunt the generosity of spirit.

The handshake, a gesture that has been around since the mid-ninth century, and evolved to show that you weren’t holding a weapon, is one of the many facets of life that has been sidelined by the virus. It may never return. 

Social distancing is not something new.

In an article from The Paris Review, the novelist Gorin McCrea writes about the reveries of solitude experienced by Jacques Rosseau, who voluntarily stepped outside of society and willingly distanced himself.

There is something positive about having more time, fewer meetings, and less travel. We all have more time. How we use that time is an individual choice.  

The third U.S. president, Thomas Jefferson put it best.

“I love the ineffable of being owner of my own time.”

 

The Impact of COVID-19

                  THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

                                         

 

For the past six weeks I have sent information on the impact of the pandemic on higher education. The list of recipients has increased as has the amount of information I have compiled. 

 

 So beginning with this week’s bulletin, I will re-format the information to include a section of facts, a section of my interpretation of the facts and a concluding section which I hope will make some of you smile.

Paul Hanstedt, director of the Center for Academic Resources and Pedagogical Excellence at Washington and Lee University, wrote the following about the impact of COVID-19 on higher education:

“The virus is breaking down the boundaries between static learning and the wicked fluidity of the world.”

It is my intention, as each of you walk down your own corridor of isolation, to illustrate the connectivity of the academic and administrative functions of higher education. 

JUST THE FACTS

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CONCERNS

A new survey of concerns of college and university presidents in the United States revealed that the main concern of 86% of the presidents was short-term attrition and long-tern enrollment. 

The survey also revealed:

76% of presidents planned to invest in new, online learning resources

70% planned to move admissions online

62% planned to reduce the workforce

38% planned to institute salary reductions

36% planned to reduce benefits and

28% planned to revise admissions’ standards

 

CHINESE STUDENTS

A survey conducted by Amherst College of 54 college counselors in China revealed that 87% are “reconsidering” studying in the United States because of safety concerns, fear of visa denial or deportation, and uncertainty about remaining in the United States after graduation. BUT 70% of the counselors suggested that if Chinese students were admitted to a prestigious college in the United States, they would choose to enroll in the U.S.

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL

The Fulbright Program notified all 2020-21 scholars that the start date for international travel will be delayed from fall 2020 to January 2021, at least.

According to a United Nations World Tourism Organization report, 96% of all destinations worldwide have introduced travel restrictions since January 2020. As of April 6th no destination has been lifted.

International travel was suspended for 95% of faculty and staff in March. 

Passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport, Europe’s busiest airport, was down 97% last month.

CHANGE IN EDUCATION PLANS

According to a survey conducted by Strada Education Network, an estimated 28 million Americans, or 1 in 5, have cancelled their educational plans because of the virus.

QS collected responses of 24,000 American students at the end of April who plan to defer or cancel their study abroad plans. Only 10% said they had not changed their plans to study abroad.

One in ten American high school students who planned to attend a four-year college in the fall, full-time, no longer plan to do so.

According to a UNESCO report, the pandemic has disrupted learning for nine out of ten students, (87%).

ONLINE LEARNING

Online learning platforms such as Open Classrooms, Future Learn, and Coursera have experienced a surge in demand.

More than 120,000 students in 1,200 schools are enrolled the Paris-based Open Classrooms.

Future Learn developed a course “How to Teach Online,” and 30,000 people signed up for the course in a few days. 

A survey conducted by Tyton Partners revealed that only 57% of American parents surveyed would continue at an institution if it offered only online education. When asked to respond to the quality of the remote instruction students were now receiving, on a scale of 1 to 10, they ranked the quality of online learning at 5.6. 

This same survey also found that parents were less likely to pay the same tuition rates as were charged before COVID-19.

TUITION AND FEE CHANGES

Davidson College in North Carolina will allow any accepted applicant affected by COVID-19 to delay fall 2020 tuition payments for a year.

Southern New Hampshire college is offering a full-tuition scholarship for one year to any accepted applicant who enrolls at the university’s traditional campus.

 

CONNECT THE DOTS

Geopolitical tensions between China and Australia, Canada, France, Sweden and the United States will impact future enrollment of Chinese students in those countries. Sweden, for example, has cancelled the last of its Confucius Institutes.

Consumer behavior will determine future higher education enrollment. For example, in China, retail sales have plummeted about one-sixth in March from a year earlier.

If you want to know who may enroll this year and apply next year in your school, follow the consumer behavior patterns for each of your recruitment markets.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central bank, warned that the Eurozone’s economy could shrink by as much as 12% this year.

30 million American have filed for unemployment benefits by the end of April.

Shrinking economies worldwide and millions of unemployed workers will influence future enrollment of college and university students.

The National Governors Association has released a primer for states on how to handle college closures.

Will COVID-19 transform the university sector as the Black Death did in the Middle Ages? The plague that swept through Europe in the last 1340s ultimately led to a shift from a world view centered on theology to one that valued science.

SMILE SECTION

The University of Alaska is furloughing its top officials, including the president, for 10 days.

Be careful who you invite for lunch. A Malaysian minister was fined $229 for eating with a group of colleagues and not observing social distancing.

Did you know that Rome turned 2,773 years old last week?

I learned a new word today: sitooterie – a small area where people sit outside.

I hope each of you has found, or will find, a suitable sitooterie.

 

NEXT BULLETIN                                                                           MAY 8,2020

 

 

 

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education III

                 THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

                                       

For the past six weeks I have sent information on the impact of the pandemic on higher education. The list of recipients has increased as has the amount of information I have compiled. 

 

 So beginning with this week’s bulletin, I will re-format the information to include a section of facts, a section of my interpretation of the facts and a concluding section which I hope will make some of you smile.

Paul Hanstedt, director of the Center for Academic Resources and Pedagogical Excellence at Washington and Lee University, wrote the following about the impact of COVID-19 on higher education:

“The virus is breaking down the boundaries between static learning and the wicked fluidity of the world.”

It is my intention, as each of you walk down your own corridor of isolation, to illustrate the connectivity of the academic and administrative functions of higher education. 

JUST THE FACTS

U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CONCERNS

A new survey of concerns of college and university presidents in the United States revealed that the main concern of 86% of the presidents was short-term attrition and long-tern enrollment. 

The survey also revealed:

76% of presidents planned to invest in new, online learning resources

70% planned to move admissions online

62% planned to reduce the workforce

38% planned to institute salary reductions

36% planned to reduce benefits and

28% planned to revise admissions’ standards

 

CHINESE STUDENTS

A survey conducted by Amherst College of 54 college counselors in China revealed that 87% are “reconsidering” studying in the United States because of safety concerns, fear of visa denial or deportation, and uncertainty about remaining in the United States after graduation. BUT 70% of the counselors suggested that if Chinese students were admitted to a prestigious college in the United States, they would choose to enroll in the U.S.

INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL

The Fulbright Program notified all 2020-21 scholars that the start date for international travel will be delayed from fall 2020 to January 2021, at least.

According to a United Nations World Tourism Organization report, 96% of all destinations worldwide have introduced travel restrictions since January 2020. As of April 6th no destination has been lifted.

International travel was suspended for 95% of faculty and staff in March. 

Passenger numbers at Heathrow Airport, Europe’s busiest airport, was down 97% last month.

CHANGE IN EDUCATION PLANS

According to a survey conducted by Strada Education Network, an estimated 28 million Americans, or 1 in 5, have cancelled their educational plans because of the virus.

QS collected responses of 24,000 American students at the end of April who plan to defer or cancel their study abroad plans. Only 10% said they had not changed their plans to study abroad.

One in ten American high school students who planned to attend a four-year college in the fall, full-time, no longer plan to do so.

According to a UNESCO report, the pandemic has disrupted learning for nine out of ten students, (87%).

ONLINE LEARNING

Online learning platforms such as Open Classrooms, Future Learn, and Coursera have experienced a surge in demand.

More than 120,000 students in 1,200 schools are enrolled the Paris-based Open Classrooms.

Future Learn developed a course “How to Teach Online,” and 30,000 people signed up for the course in a few days. 

A survey conducted by Tyton Partners revealed that only 57% of American parents surveyed would continue at an institution if it offered only online education. When asked to respond to the quality of the remote instruction students were now receiving, on a scale of 1 to 10, they ranked the quality of online learning at 5.6. 

This same survey also found that parents were less likely to pay the same tuition rates as were charged before COVID-19.

TUITION AND FEE CHANGES

Davidson College in North Carolina will allow any accepted applicant affected by COVID-19 to delay fall 2020 tuition payments for a year.

Southern New Hampshire college is offering a full-tuition scholarship for one year to any accepted applicant who enrolls at the university’s traditional campus.

 

CONNECT THE DOTS

Geopolitical tensions between China and Australia, Canada, France, Sweden and the United States will impact future enrollment of Chinese students in those countries. Sweden, for example, has cancelled the last of its Confucius Institutes.

Consumer behavior will determine future higher education enrollment. For example, in China, retail sales have plummeted about one-sixth in March from a year earlier.

If you want to know who may enroll this year and apply next year in your school, follow the consumer behavior patterns for each of your recruitment markets.

Christine Lagarde, the president of the European Central bank, warned that the Eurozone’s economy could shrink by as much as 12% this year.

30 million American have filed for unemployment benefits by the end of April.

Shrinking economies worldwide and millions of unemployed workers will influence future enrollment of college and university students.

The National Governors Association has released a primer for states on how to handle college closures.

Will COVID-19 transform the university sector as the Black Death did in the Middle Ages? The plague that swept through Europe in the last 1340s ultimately led to a shift from a world view centered on theology to one that valued science.

SMILE SECTION

The University of Alaska is furloughing its top officials, including the president, for 10 days.

Be careful who you invite for lunch. A Malaysian minister was fined $229 for eating with a group of colleagues and not observing social distancing.

Did you know that Rome turned 2,773 years old last week?

I learned a new word today: sitooterie – a small area where people sit outside.

I hope each of you has found, or will find, a suitable sitooterie.

 

 

 

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education II

                      THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

                  

 

“Every university we have spoken to expects to be impacted by COVID-19 and for some, the potential loss of income is projected to be greater than 100 million pounds. And that is before you factor in that losing new students has a multi-year impact.”

                                                        Andrew Connors, Lloyds Banking Group

 

In the United States, more than 4,000 colleges and universities and 25 million students will be impacted by COVID-19. A loss of $46.6 billion in revenue is projected for the next academic year, according to the American Council on Education. 

Because of the pandemic, Johns Hopkins University will not make contributions to employees’ retirement funds for a year.

The Canadian government plans to give college students and new graduates monthly stipends of 1,250 Canadian dollars, ($844) from May through August.

Southern New Hampshire University is offering free tuition to all incoming freshmen and plans to reduce tuition to $10,000, more than a 50 percent cut.

According to a PEW Research Report, the success of on-line outreach to international students depends on income. Students from wealthier countries are more likely to embrace digital technology. In Nigeria, for example, only 13 percent of Nigerians use the internet. Offering semester-long online instruction will be limited to international students from specific countries.

According to a report in The Chronicle of Higher Education, 91 percent of Indian students want to continue studying abroad even in COVID-19 lockdown.

40 percent of potential international students are considering changing their study abroad plans, an increase from 31 percent three weeks ago.

A survey of 415 fundraisers at 48 schools in the United States revealed that 43 percent don’t expect to meet their fundraising goals.

According to a recent report by the American Association of Collegiate Registrars and Admissions Officers, 60 percent of colleges and universities in the United States are considering or have already decided to remain fully on-line for the fall semester. 

Australian officials estimate that the financial loss of international students’ revenue to be between $30b-$60b.

According to an IMF report published in Nikkee Asian Review, only emerging Asian countries will have economic growth in 2020.

According to the National Center for Education Statistics, 38 percent of first-time students transfer schools and on average they lose 43 percent of their credits, basically one semester, and pay an extra $36,000 for an undergraduate degree.

In an attempt to rethink the academic calendar, Beloit College in Wisconsin is breaking the “normal” semester into two modules with students taking two courses each.

On April 19, 2020, in Nikkee Asian Review, the following was reported: China and South Korea are surging ahead in the international brain race for world-class universities. China has already surpassed Japan in world rankings and is closing the gap with the United States. China has poured more than $20 billion in funding into more than 100 Chinese institutions. Funding is concentrated in STEM disciplines.

Author’s Note:

In this week’s issue of The New Yorker, a cartoon caption caught my eye.

“Good news – Shakespeare is using this time to write “King Lear,” so we’ll have more stuff to binge soon.”

 

Next update: May 26, 2020

The Impact of COVID-19 on Higher Education

                   THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON HIGHER EDUCATION

 

 

 

Jeanne Harrison, Vice President and Senior Analyst at Moody’s Investors Services, highlighting the financial impact of the pandemic on higher education, wrote: We expect rated universities in all of our current jurisdictions- US, Canada, UK, Australia, Singapore, and Mexico- to enroll fewer students for the next academic year than planned, due to the outbreak.”

On April 16th, the New York Times reported t

hat higher education trade groups have predicted a 15% decrease in enrollment nationwide in the United States, amounting to a $23 billion revenue loss.

In a recent survey of nearly 3,000 students intending to study in Canada, more than half (54%) are planning to defer their admission for a year. Another 15% have changed their plans and are no longer planning to study in Canada.

In a survey published in The Pie News on April 15th, 42% of students surveyed indicated they had no interest in studying online.  The same survey revealed that 46% of the 11,000 international students surveyed said the virus has impacted their study plans.

On April 14th, Studyportals published survey results that indicated 40% of potential international students were changing their study plans. Three weeks ago the figure was 31%. The same survey revealed that 83% of respondents believe their travel plans will be restricted and 68% think their parents’ savings will decrease because of the virus.

Several colleges and universities in the United States, including Boston University and the University of Oklahoma, are considering cancelling in-person instruction for the fall term. Beloit College is considering starting the fall term later than usual and holding two seven-week modules instead of a single semester.

The University of Connecticut created a one-credit course, “The COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts on Health, Business, and Society. More than 4,000 students  enrolled in the course.

Minnesota State University expects to cut 10 majors and more than 160 positions to defray a projected $6-million budget deficit in the 2022 fiscal year.

The president of Harvard will take a 25% salary cut. The president and provost of MIT will each take a 20% cut.  

On -the horizon-trend?  Some legislators in Pennsylvania are questioning if the state needs all 14 colleges and universities. Will consolidation follow? Will other states, in the face of state budget deficits, do the same?

The College Board has cancelled the June SAT examination. More than 50 colleges and universities have announced that SAT scores will no longer be required for admission. Schools include: Tulane, Virginia Tech, Swarthmore, Williams and the University of California, system-wide.

Officials for the SAT and ACT are in the process of creating digital versions of their tests that students can take at home.

Economic Indicators Impacting Future Higher Education Enrollment

China’s GDP shrank 6.8% for the first quarter of 2021, the first decline since 1992.

COVID-19 job losses in Asia could force 11 million people into poverty.

As of April 16th 22 million Americans, or 13.5% of the labor force, were unemployed. This represents the worst level of unemployment since the Great Depression.

Investment income in the United States, represents 9% of revenue at private universities, and 2.5% at public schools. The Hechinger Report noted last month that 75% of the $630 billion in endowment funds at U.S. institutions are invested in stocks, whose value has plunged since the pandemic’s onset. 

Declining investment returns, along with federal and state budget cuts and a decline in the number of enrolling international students, will make it necessary for colleges and universities around the world to shelve their strategic plans and create vision plans. What will your school look like after some semblance of normalcy returns and how can you communicate your vision with future applicants and students?

More to come on that subject.